As we look ahead to 2025, the only thing we can be sure of is that no one is sure what's coming our way – and if they tell you they are, they're lying! But at CORE Insights Group, our 200+ years of combined experience in the industry have taught us that it IS possible to prepare for the unexpected.
Update, September 2026
We are leaving the original piece exactly as we wrote it in January 2025, so read it as a dated take, not a forecast. Twenty months on, the honest answer to the question in the title has not moved. Nobody knows what is coming, and anyone selling you certainty is still selling. What has held up is the advice underneath, because most of it did not rest on a forecast. It rested on how you structure contracts and supplier relationships.
One thing has changed on our side: we now say plainly what this post only implied. The target is the purchasing-driven portion of cost of goods sold (COGS), what you actually pay suppliers and distributors for food, beverage and supplies, because that is the part of COGS a contract can move. How much you use (portioning, waste, recipe decisions) is the other part, and that lives in your inventory and recipe systems, not in a supplier agreement. The approach is now written up on one page, how CORE lowers the purchasing-driven portion of restaurant COGS. It is written for restaurant groups, but the same levers apply to a club or hotel kitchen.
The contract work in the list below has documented results. CORE renegotiated a lobster contract for Gecko's Hospitality Group that saves over $350,000 a year, and renegotiated supplier contracts for Sonesta for $1M+ in savings with no loss of quality. Both are on our success stories page.
The January 2025 piece picks up again here.
Overall, our advice as we enter 2025 is to be cautious, nimble and positioned sensibly to react as we gain more clarity over time. Avoid being overly speculative. Instead of focusing on forecasting, which is risky in an uncertain climate, rely on a strong sourcing strategy to carry you through.
Here are some simple dos and don'ts to guide you as you prepare to succeed in an uncertain environment – and remember the CORE team is always here to help!
Do:
- Focus on a strong sourcing strategy – not speculation.
- When it comes to domestic and near-shore consumable commodities and labor, ride the wave as inflation is passed through and relief comes in its wake.
- When it comes to imports, focus on cost plus contracts with fixed annual costs.
- Consider big supplier relationships rather than medium or small. They may be able to better protect costs in an inflationary environment and shelter you from the impact of currency shifts.
- Align yourself with suppliers who are nimble, ideally have global production footprints and can move manufacturing reasonably quickly.
- Leverage your procurement data to save costs. Advanced analytics can help you optimize your purchasing decisions, identify substitutes that reduce costs without compromising quality, and uncover opportunities for savings on existing items.
- Take the opportunity to reset surcharges related to fuel or other energy costs. Review your energy contracts for escalator/de-escalator clauses and look over past price changes from suppliers as you plan for renegotiations later in the year.
- Contact CORE Insights Group to support you in reviewing – and renegotiating – your contracts and getting the right sourcing strategy in place!
Don't:
- Overexpose yourself to speculative, long-term commitments. Remember, if inflation explodes this is passed through via cost increases to the end customer.
- Rely solely on legacy tech systems. In 2025, investing in emerging technologies will help you optimize your operations, reduce costs and elevate the guest experience, ensuring you stay competitive in a rapidly evolving market.
- Try to do it all on your own! Our experienced team at CORE Insights Group can help you put a strategy in place to successfully manage whatever changes come your way.